Lose The Anchor

Hey y’all — founder life is full of big bets.

But the biggest one is something it’s easy to forget to worry about:

What you’re working on in the first place.

Too many founders latch onto their first idea that sees some traction (or, worse, even before it sees any) and decide to commit years of their life to it.

That’s like getting married after the first date.

So this week I’m breaking down:

• Why founders get caught up in ideas too early

• Why this is a problem (especially now with AI)

• How to recognize if you’re in this spot & what to do about it

Also, we’re going to purge some inactive folks from the newsletter list pretty soon, so if you want to make sure you keep getting FJ then click on at least one link in this issue (like this one).

Work on the Right Thing

Why Founders Jump Too Soon

I’ve talked to roughly 20+ founders about this in casual conversations.

In most cases, these take place either after they’ve realized they’ve done this themselves or while they’re a bit on the fence.

Most can be grouped into one of the following four reasons:

1. Unchecked bias for action → Usually having a good bias to action is considered basically required for founders (and I’m not debating that at all) but, if unchecked, it can lead to hasty decisions like this.

2. FOMO → It’s easy to get overly worried about first-mover advantage. This one’s most common in super hot spaces, especially if the founder is also new to the space.

3. Vision-driven thinking → Don’t fall in love with your idea for the future where your product has changed the world. If you give in to your passion too much here, you’ll end up blind to what’s actually going on around you.

4. Perceived pressure → Some founders are too afraid to fail. I’ve failed spectacularly and can confirm it just makes you a better founder. Ignore the sunk cost fallacy.

In each case, it’s avoidable — just stay aware of your mindset.

Why It’s A Problem

No founder wants to waste time on a dud.

Even so, if you get on this ride it can be hard to stop simply because it can be hard to notice — there’s always work to keep you preoccupied once you get going.

Basically, if you’re not noticing it already at the stage when you’re supposed to be evaluating ideas, your chance of noticing it when you’re super busy and trying to make it successful are much lower.

It’s also just hard to realize unless it’s blatantly obvious that you’re getting zero traction. Any little spurt of response from the market can fool you into thinking it’s the beginning of something big.

This is especially tricky with AI because everyone around you (who isn’t as close to your potential users as you are) will be telling you you’re obviously onto something, and even early customers may just be evaluating any new AI solution right now as their execs tell them to improve efficiency with AI.

So those early traction numbers might not be indicative of much.

How To Avoid & Recognize It

Following signs of early momentum is usually a good thing — so how do you know when it’s not?

Here are three signs you might be jumping too soon:

1. You’re ignoring red flags → Are your users lukewarm at best? Does growth spike and then stall? If you’re dismissing these as temporary problems, you’re at risk here.

2. You can’t explain why things are working → Chances are you’re not ChatGPT, and your product isn’t going to be a massive success somewhat unexpectedly (in his Reflections essay, Sam Altman talks about this). In most cases, though, this points to luck rather than sustainable strategy.

3. You’re Afraid to Pivot → If the thought of tweaking or even abandoning your idea feels like a betrayal, you’re probably too emotionally invested.

What To Do About It

If you ever realize you’re in this situation, don’t worry — it’s not too late.

Here’s how to course-correct:

1. Define “traction” clearly → Set specific milestones like x customers in y weeks. If you don’t hit them, reassess.

2. Test, don’t guess → As Jeff Bezos says, the anecdotes are usually right over the data, but you’re only going to get useful anecdotes (and data) if you run proper tests.

3. Talk to skeptics → Find mentors or other founders who’ll poke holes in the business.

4. Timebox your commitment → Set a goal and a period of time to achieve it. If you don’t hit it, move on without second-guessing.

The good news is that AI and agents now make it easier than ever to

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